THE BRIEF | 23 February 2026 | 12:00 PM SAST

SOUTH AFRICA | KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Budget Week Opens Under Fiscal and Political Pressure

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to table the 2026 National Budget this week, with fiscal consolidation and growth stimulus at the centre of debate. Revenue collection has modestly outperformed projections, creating limited room for targeted relief, yet structural constraints—youth unemployment, water infrastructure backlogs, and municipal balance-sheet stress—continue to compress policy flexibility. Business sentiment has improved on incremental energy stability and tourism recovery, but sustainability remains contingent on execution rather than commodity tailwinds. Why it matters: The credibility of fiscal anchors, including debt-to-GDP stabilisation targets, will determine borrowing costs and investor confidence in a year marked by coalition governance complexity.

Broken by:
Business Day – https://www.businesslive.co.za
National Treasury – https://www.treasury.gov.za

Mining Sector Repositions After Anglo American Loss

Anglo American reported a $3.7 billion loss, reflecting softer commodity prices and operational strain, including challenges at its Kloof operations. Management reiterated plans to divest its De Beers diamond business by year-end as part of a portfolio simplification strategy favouring copper and iron ore assets aligned to energy transition demand. Why it matters: The restructuring signals capital discipline in a cyclical downturn, with implications for employment, export earnings, and South Africa’s mining royalty base.

Broken by:
Business Day – https://www.businesslive.co.za
Anglo American – https://www.angloamerican.com

Johannesburg Reviews Medium-Term Budget Adjustments

The City of Johannesburg Budget Steering Committee reviewed 2026/27–2028/29 planning targets over the weekend, citing improved property valuations and revenue alignment efforts. Officials emphasised sustainable service delivery amid infrastructure decay and political instability across Gauteng metros. Why it matters: Municipal fiscal discipline is pivotal to national reform credibility, particularly as capital expenditure gaps widen in water and electricity networks.

Broken by:
City of Johannesburg – https://www.joburg.org.za

AFRICA | KEY DEVELOPMENTS

FATF Removes Four Countries From Monitoring List

The Financial Action Task Force confirmed that Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa have been removed from its increased monitoring (“grey”) list following progress in strengthening anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist financing frameworks. Why it matters: Delisting reduces compliance friction for cross-border capital flows and supports sovereign risk repricing, though governance vulnerabilities persist in extractive industries and public procurement systems.

Broken by:
FATF – https://www.fatf-gafi.org

Kenya Prepares to Reopen IMF Negotiations

Kenya is preparing to resume engagement with the International Monetary Fund following the collapse of its prior programme. Talks are expected to centre on debt sustainability, fiscal consolidation, and growth-supportive reforms. Why it matters: East Africa’s largest economy faces tightening liquidity conditions; programme design will test the balance between austerity and employment-led growth amid youth-driven political pressure.

Broken by:
Reuters – https://www.reuters.com
Dawan Africa – https://dawan.africa

Growth Forecasts Signal Continental Divergence

The IMF projects Africa will host more economies expanding above 6% in 2026 than any other region, supported by AfCFTA trade integration and commodity recovery. Why it matters: While headline growth improves, divergence between reforming and debt-constrained states may widen, reinforcing the importance of governance reforms to sustain capital inflows.

Broken by:
Africanews – https://www.africanews.com
IMF – https://www.imf.org

WORLD | KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Trump Imposes Universal 10% Import Tariff

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% ad valorem duty on all imports effective February 24 under Section 122 authority, terminating prior tariff orders and ending de minimis exemptions. The administration framed the measure as corrective action against persistent balance-of-payments deficits. Why it matters: A universal tariff recalibrates global supply chains, risks inflationary spillovers, and intensifies trade diplomacy ahead of the State of the Union address, embedding trade protection at the core of U.S. economic strategy.

Broken by:
Daily Trump Report – https://www.dailytrumpreport.com

U.S. Supreme Court Limits Executive Tariff Authority

The Supreme Court of the United States ruled that emergency powers cannot justify sweeping global tariffs, constraining unilateral executive action. President Trump signalled plans to raise the baseline tariff to 15% in response. Why it matters: Legal uncertainty complicates trade negotiations and introduces volatility into markets pricing policy continuity.

Broken by:
Reuters – https://www.reuters.com

Markets React to Trade Escalation

Gold advanced and the U.S. dollar softened as investors repositioned amid tariff escalation fears. Analysts warn retaliatory action from China and the EU could dampen global growth momentum. Why it matters: Commodity and currency volatility may spill into emerging markets, including South Africa, via capital flow adjustments.

Broken by:
Financial Times – https://www.ft.com
CNBC – https://www.cnbc.com

IMF to Review U.S. Fiscal Position

The IMF is scheduled to release its annual assessment of U.S. economic policies following consultations with Treasury officials. Persistent deficits and rising debt remain central concerns. Why it matters: Divergence between IMF fiscal guidance and White House tax policy underscores tension between expansionary trade measures and long-term debt sustainability.

Broken by:
Reuters – https://www.reuters.com

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